BIG MISTAKE!? – How to WIN at POKER in 2024 PART 5

We're back with the controversial last hand as I breakdown my reasoning behind breaking the play.

0:00 Intro
0:25 Preflop
1:15 Hopping Direct?
1:40 Flop
3:20 Bet-Fold AK?
4:10 Turn
6:20 No Club
7:40 River Problem
8:20 Worth Bet or Bluff?
9:30 Avoiding a Big Mistake
10:50 Equity Rejection
12:00 Diverting from
12:40 Solver says
14:00 River
15:00 Conclusion

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BIG MISTAKE!? – in 2024 PART 5

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27 Comments

  1. Hi Daniel, i just wanted to say thank you for doing what you do, you are a great ambassador for the game we all love. Take care buddy.

  2. I’ve followed you from the beginning D! I won the first all Newfoundland NLH tournament wayyyyyyy back in 2006! 4 gals, 80 guys. Everyone asked me when I won who my influence was and well……. 😂❤😂❤😂 🐐

  3. even if there was no queen on the river, I would back the 🐐with 8M vs 2M

  4. Nice to know im not the only one with these thoughts going thru my head.

  5. Interesting play by both players- I would imagine it would be hard to not go all in with trips but you have to consider is a 10 on the board for the potential straight. Your opponents range easily includes AK,AQ, KQ. Also AJ, KJ, QJ and really any other card paired with J is a possibility. I think both players did well but ultimately luck was on Daniel’s side and his opponent put his tournament life on the line by shoving all in and he lost.

    1. There is no potential straight on the turn. Heads up a J is basically the nuts. Daniel made a play hoping that his opponent was representing a J he didn’t have he was wrong but got bailed out. Opponent played it perfectly and just got 4 outed

    2. @@dominicmarino5855 there is a straight draw on the flop and turn. While I do believe luck was on Daniel’s side, the other guy called an all in with the straight draw out there. He put his tournament on the line with this hand and lost.

  6. Why does the solver say it’s better to call in the turn? Like what is the logic behind that makes it a better ev then going all in?

    1. Because AK is in front of his bluffs on the turn, and if AK jams it would get called by better hands and folds the bluffs,but by calling the turn you let him bluff the river and sometimes he will give up some bluff and can win at showdown. Or you hit the mamacita and win regardless 😁

    2. @@aritonalex3087 thanks, i still don’t really get it though. You call to keep his bluffs in and let him bluff the river, but do you even want him to bluff the river? You will have a bluff catcher and from my limited understanding the ev of calling should theorethically be similar to folding (0 ev)

    3. @@michael3829kkao if you go all in on turn you can’t call the bluff on the river, and he won’t call with his bluff on the turn

    4. ⁠@@michael3829kkao You want him to bluff, but if he does, you’re in a tough spot because you don’t even beat all his bluffs, so on some rivers you call down and on other rivers you don’t. Which rivers? The solver knows, but you don’t, unless you’ve run all the rivers in a solver, and why on earth would you have done that? So do you call the turn and take a guess on the river (which, if you get it wrong, could cost you many bbs of EV)? Or do you jam the turn (which you know for certain costs you <1bb of EV) and give yourself a 0% chance of losing many bbs on the river? Guaranteed small EV loss vs risk of a potentially big EV loss.

      All this, of course, assumes your opponent is playing perfect GTO, which they aren’t. But if you don’t know them well enough to exploit them somehow then GTO is the safe option.

  7. “I don’t want to risk losing money on the river, so I risk all my money on the turn”
    Classic Dnegs strat right there. Always love Daniels awkward winning monologues too.

  8. I appreciate the hand breakdowns. Would love to see you break that down if you lost though. Can we get some more hand breakdowns when you make a mistake and talk about what you should have done differently?

  9. If you don’t know how a guy is going to play doesn’t that mean you should stick with the normal play and not deviate?

  10. I kind of laugh that Daniel always seems to call out what his opponent has before he sees it.

  11. I remember watching that game and seeing how many good folds you had.

  12. The internet poker superstars are out to play again D Negs, thanks for all the content legend!

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